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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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