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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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