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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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