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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 April 19
U.S : MORE THAN 7 GW OF COAL-FIRED GENERATION IS SCHEDULED TO RETIRE BY THE END OF 2020 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production decreased by 19 million short tons (MMst) (2%) in 2018, totaling 756 MMst.
EIA also expects ...
Friday, 12 April 19
GLENCORE WINS $520 MILLION DEAL TO SELL COAL TO MEXICO - REUTERS
Global trader Glencore has won contracts worth around $520 million to supply 4.94 million tonnes of coal to Mexico, state-run power utility the Fed ...
Thursday, 11 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL IN THE FRONTLINE OF CHINA'S SUPPLY GLUT - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Australian coal will be hardest hit as China cuts foreign imports of its key energy source to tackle oversupply, and implements policies favouring ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
COALTRANS ASIA - TAKE PART IN THE LARGEST COAL EVENT IN THE WORLD!
Take part in the largest coal event in the world!
Coaltrans Asia is back this June bringing together the entire international coal s ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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