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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 April 19
U.S : MORE THAN 7 GW OF COAL-FIRED GENERATION IS SCHEDULED TO RETIRE BY THE END OF 2020 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production decreased by 19 million short tons (MMst) (2%) in 2018, totaling 756 MMst.
EIA also expects ...
Friday, 12 April 19
GLENCORE WINS $520 MILLION DEAL TO SELL COAL TO MEXICO - REUTERS
Global trader Glencore has won contracts worth around $520 million to supply 4.94 million tonnes of coal to Mexico, state-run power utility the Fed ...
Thursday, 11 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL IN THE FRONTLINE OF CHINA'S SUPPLY GLUT - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Australian coal will be hardest hit as China cuts foreign imports of its key energy source to tackle oversupply, and implements policies favouring ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
COALTRANS ASIA - TAKE PART IN THE LARGEST COAL EVENT IN THE WORLD!
Take part in the largest coal event in the world!
Coaltrans Asia is back this June bringing together the entire international coal s ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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