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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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