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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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