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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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