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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last three months approximately 72 tankers changed hands involving ships larger than 33kdwt up to VLCC. 43 of those vessels had to do ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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