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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
Tuesday, 25 September 18
THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH OF RISING COAL PRICES - FORBES
Coal prices are not supposed to be rising as governments tighten environmental controls but that’s precisely what is happening at the premium ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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