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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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