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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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