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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 September 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN SECTOR REMAINED ACTIVE WITH RATES STILL FIRM ESPECIALLY IN SE ASIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A turnaround in fortunes for the big ships, with a few slower days in the market. A build-up of tonnage and a lack of Brazil cargoes r ...
Thursday, 30 August 18
SUPRAMAX: CIS COAL TO FAR EAST WENT AT MID TENS AND TO SE ASIA AT CA USD 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There was a slow start this week with holiday in UK on Monday. The index has been slowly coming off since then; The C5 route has seen ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
MID-YEAR FY19 POWER OUTLOOK: IMPORTED COAL REQUIREMENT TO INCREASE DURING REMAINING FY19: IND-RA
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a stable-to-negative outlook on the Indian power sector for the remaining FY19, despite a rise i ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
IMPACT ON CHARTERPARTIES - TIME TO ACT NOW : NORTH P&I CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges introduced by the global sulphur cap are not exclusively technical. The new limits are likely to impact co ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
COURT CONCLUDES DELIVERY MADE IN ACCORDANCE WITH TERMS OF LOIS - INCE&CO
Glencore Agriculture BV v Navig8 Chemicals Pool Inc (Songa Winds) [2018] EWCA 1901 (Civ)
In this case, the Commercial Court fo ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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