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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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