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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 22 August 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 480K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 480,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
During the most quite week of the summer period we witnessed a trade war between United States and Turkey. A battle, which started with the arrest ...
Monday, 20 August 18
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE BSI INDEX WITH GAINS MADE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of largely unfulfilled expectations with holidays again curbing activity. Rates remained essentially healthy, but despite bad wea ...
Friday, 17 August 18
DO ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS IN BILLS OF LADING BIND THEIR HOLDERS? - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bills of lading are a crucial part of the security package traditionally sought by trade finance providers.
...
Friday, 17 August 18
MALAYSIA'S MANJUNG 4 - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
According to the IEA’s Energy Access Outlook 2017 report, nearly all of those who gained access to electricity worldwide in the last 16 years ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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