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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Tuesday, 28 August 18
SUPRAMAX: A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA PAID $13,500 ON A 56,000DWT TO WC INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Singapore holiday mid-week disrupted trading and unsettled the market, with owners losing some resilience. The market took on a la ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As we edge close to the start of the Autumn Season, a period within the year that is usually characterized as the pivot point from the final quarte ...
Friday, 24 August 18
KOREAN RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SULPHUR IMPACTING HUNTER EXPORTS - THE HERALD
WARNINGS that Korean restrictions on sulphur levels in coal could hurt the Hunter industry appear to have been accurate, according to a report in t ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
RUSSIA'S MECHEL PRODUCED 9.69 MMT OF RUN-OF-MINE COAL IN 1H'2018
Mechel PAO, one of the leading Russian mining and metals companies, announces 1H2018 operational results.
Mechel PAO’s Chief E ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
SUPRAMAX: SOME FRESH COAL CARGOES APPEARED IN SE ASIA, GIVING A BIT PRESSURE ON RATES FOR END AUGUST SHIPMENTS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Slightly softer but generally very healthy for the big ships, with limited supply of early tonnage and positive Brazilian ore export v ...
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Showing 1636 to 1640 news of total 6871 |
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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