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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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Showing 1626 to 1630 news of total 6871 |
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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