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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Tuesday, 04 September 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN SECTOR REMAINED ACTIVE WITH RATES STILL FIRM ESPECIALLY IN SE ASIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A turnaround in fortunes for the big ships, with a few slower days in the market. A build-up of tonnage and a lack of Brazil cargoes r ...
Thursday, 30 August 18
SUPRAMAX: CIS COAL TO FAR EAST WENT AT MID TENS AND TO SE ASIA AT CA USD 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There was a slow start this week with holiday in UK on Monday. The index has been slowly coming off since then; The C5 route has seen ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
MID-YEAR FY19 POWER OUTLOOK: IMPORTED COAL REQUIREMENT TO INCREASE DURING REMAINING FY19: IND-RA
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a stable-to-negative outlook on the Indian power sector for the remaining FY19, despite a rise i ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
IMPACT ON CHARTERPARTIES - TIME TO ACT NOW : NORTH P&I CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges introduced by the global sulphur cap are not exclusively technical. The new limits are likely to impact co ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
COURT CONCLUDES DELIVERY MADE IN ACCORDANCE WITH TERMS OF LOIS - INCE&CO
Glencore Agriculture BV v Navig8 Chemicals Pool Inc (Songa Winds) [2018] EWCA 1901 (Civ)
In this case, the Commercial Court fo ...
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Showing 1631 to 1635 news of total 6871 |
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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