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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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Showing 1616 to 1620 news of total 6871 |
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
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