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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
Tuesday, 25 September 18
THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH OF RISING COAL PRICES - FORBES
Coal prices are not supposed to be rising as governments tighten environmental controls but that’s precisely what is happening at the premium ...
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Showing 1606 to 1610 news of total 6871 |
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
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