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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
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Showing 1596 to 1600 news of total 6871 |
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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