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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
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Showing 1611 to 1615 news of total 6871 |
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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