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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Thursday, 16 August 18
COAL PRODUCTION AT 37.11 PERCENT OF FULL-YEAR TARGET - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production was recorded at 180 million tons on Wednesday, or 37.11 percent of the government’s 485 million target this year.
...
Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed ...
Tuesday, 14 August 18
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS SHOWN A TREMENDOUS COURSE DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS - THOMAS CHASAPIS
The Capesize market has shown a tremendous course during the past 12 months, having quickly climbed out of the “hole that it had found itself ...
Monday, 13 August 18
A 50,200 DWT FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $10,000S - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Expectations of a further push in the market were largely unfulfilled last week as rates come under pressure in Asia as the North Atla ...
Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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