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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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