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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Saturday, 28 July 18
GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE COAL PRICE CAP POLICY - JP
The government plans to revise its domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal price next week during a high-level meeting with President Joko “ ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
A SUPRAMAX IS NOW PAID AROUND USD 21,500 FOR LOADING IN THE US GULF WITH DISCHARGE IN THE FAR EAST - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There has been a relatively strong summer period so far, and there is a strong week we have left behind us.
In the Pa ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
ASEAN COAL IMPORTS INCREASED IN 2Q' 18 COMPARED TO THE PRIOR YEAR; THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS 56 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL PLANTS IN 24 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO COME ONLINE IN 2018 - PEABODY
Peabody announced its second quarter 2018 operating results, including revenues of $1.31 billion, income from continuing operations, net of income ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM'S PROFIT GROWS 50% IN FIRST HALF - JP
Coal miner Bukit Asam announced 50 percent profit growth to Rp 2.58 trillion (US$177.33 million) in the first half of 2018, on the back of a coal-p ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
We are now into the second half of 2018, which so far has not been a fruitful year for tankers. With 2020 quickly approaching we need to consider t ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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