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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Tuesday, 10 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The trade dispute saga continued over the past week, as new tariffs were put into force on Friday in both the U.S. and China and have already taken ...
Tuesday, 10 July 18
SUPPORTING SULPHUR 2020 CONSISTENT IMPLEMENTATION - IMO
An IMO working group is meeting (9-13 July) to develop guidelines to support the consistent implementation of the 0.50% limit for the sulphur conte ...
Monday, 09 July 18
RISING COAL PRICES LIFTING AUSTRALIA'S EXPORT REVENUES BUT INVESTORS STAYING AWAY - NEWCASTLE HERALD
Newcastle coal prices have risen more than 40 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels for seven years but the industry is becoming increas ...
Saturday, 07 July 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STRUGGLED; A 57K-DWT WAS REPORTED FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA AT $12K
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships that saw Atlantic rates soar, with the tonnage list tight prompting charterers to split cargoes, thoug ...
Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
Coal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in i ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
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