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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 06 July 18
HOW FLEET SIZE, CORPORATE PROFILE AND STRATEGY ARE DECIDING FACTORS IN SELECTING AN APPROPRIATE FINANCING STRATEGY - PWC
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges that shipping companies are facing when selecting an appropriate financing strategy during the current per ...
Friday, 06 July 18
INDIA: GOVT TO RELAX CURBS ON INDIAN FIRMS CHARTERING FOREIGN SHIPS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Ministry of Shipping is clearly in reform mode. On the heels of the recent relaxation of the cabotage law, which allows foreign flag vessels to ...
Friday, 06 July 18
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE SPOT COAL PRICES HIT $120 FOR 1ST TIME SINCE 2012 - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have broken through $120 per tonne for the first time since 2012, driven up by strong consumption in Asia and spot m ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
WHAT THE FAILED GLENCORE-TOHOKU COAL TALKS MEAN FOR THE MARKET - REUTERS
Electric utilities in Japan and other Asian countries are driving blind when it comes to coal prices after the failure of Japan’s Tohoku Elec ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS 74 MONTHS HIGH OF $104.65 A TON
COALspot.com: HBA keeps rising. According to latest ministerial decree No.1892 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 2 July 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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