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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 29 June 18
THE LBH GROUP AND RHENUS PLAN TO ESTABLISH A JOINT COMPANY
Press Release: The port services provider, the LBH Group, and the logistics specialist Rhenus, are planning to cooperate closely in the European in ...
Friday, 29 June 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO / CHINA COAL ROUNDS PAYING AROUND USD HIGH 11000 - FEARNLYS
Capesize
Its been an interesting week with a strong demand for ships out of Brazil, making C3 rates remain around USD 19 pmt said Fearnlys in i ...
Friday, 29 June 18
JAPAN'S TOHOKU ELEC, GLENCORE ABANDON APRIL-MARCH COAL CONTRACT TALKS - REUTERS
Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power Co Inc and Glencore Plc have abandoned talks on annual thermal coal supplies after failing to reach an agreemen ...
Wednesday, 27 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
After the abolishment of the trade embargo against Iran, there was a lot of optimism from the country’s side, as after quite some time a numb ...
Tuesday, 26 June 18
"ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE": ARRIVAL, DEPARTURE OR BOTH? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An “always accessible” berth warranty is often used by an owner to transfer the risk of delays in berthing to ...
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Showing 1686 to 1690 news of total 6871 |
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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