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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Thursday, 21 June 18
CHINESE REDUCED COAL IMPORT RESTRICTIONS - CAIXIN GLOBAL
Caixin Global reported that the Chinese government has reduced restrictions on coal imports at the nation’s major ports in response to concer ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADMITS COAL SHORTAGE, ASKS DISCOMS TO IMPORT - TIMES OF INDIA
Times of India reported that the power ministry has advised all state governments and private power distribution companies to import coal as Coal I ...
Tuesday, 19 June 18
WCA RESPONDS TO BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY 2018
Responding to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, Benjamin Sporton, Chief Executive of the World Coal Association (WCA) said, &ldqu ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 2% TO 756 MILLION SHORT TONS MMST IN 2018 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production to decline by 2% to 756 million short tons (MMst) in 2018.
According to EIA's Short-Term Ener ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2018 marks quite a few milestones for Greek Shipping. No need to detail again the greatness of Greek Shipping or the singular position that Greek s ...
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Showing 1696 to 1700 news of total 6871 |
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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