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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Tuesday, 05 June 18
THINGS STILL LOOK TO BE PROMISING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Just as we thought the world was calming back down to reason, worries and frictions regarding global trade resurfaced this past week after a series ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IS GOING UP AGAIN
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1857 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 4 June 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) up 7.91 pe ...
Saturday, 02 June 18
HOW CARBON UTILISATION WILL BE A KEY STEP IN INDIA'S CLIMATE STRATEGY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
For India, energy remains the key driver of growth, not only from an economic perspective but more importantly for accelerating social development. ...
Thursday, 31 May 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS GETTING FIXED AROUND $13K DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Cape market has been on a downward trend for the past week.
According to Fearnleys, Oslo based broker, Brazil market ...
Wednesday, 30 May 18
HIGH PRICE, DMO ENCOURAGE COAL MINERS TO BOOST PRODUCTION - THE JAKARTA POST
A number of coal miners are planning to increase production by 10 percent in the second half of this year after a worldwide price increase.
Th ...
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Showing 1706 to 1710 news of total 6871 |
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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