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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 30 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
Among several hot topics that will be discussed during the Posidonia week, the International Maritime Organization regulation that will be enforced ...
Tuesday, 29 May 18
BLOCKCHAIN CAN HAVE A TRANSFORMATIVE EFFECT ON THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Following the launch of a legal briefing on blockchain contracts from UK P&I Club, Claims Executive, Filip Koscieleck ...
Tuesday, 29 May 18
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT DECLINES IN APRIL AMID DIVERSION TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - PTI
India’s coal import fell by 9 percent to 17.32 million tonnes (MT) in April on the back of ample supply of dry fuel from domestic sources.
...
Monday, 28 May 18
COAL SUPPLY DIVERSION IRKS INDUSTRIES DEPENDENT ON CAPTIVE POWER PLANTS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The government’s move to prioritise coal supplies to power plants with minimal coal stock has disrupted fuel supply to some sectors, which ha ...
Monday, 28 May 18
KOMIPO ISSUED ANOTHER TENDER FOR 130K MT OF 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 130,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
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Showing 1711 to 1715 news of total 6871 |
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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