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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 18 May 18
INDONESIA'S SAMARINDA ANCHORAGE COAL LOADING ACTIVITIES WERE RESUMED YESTERDAY AT 4PM LOCAL TIME
Samarinda Anchorage coal loading activities were resumed yesterday at 4PM local time.
Local fishermen in Samarinda Anchorage have been demonst ...
Wednesday, 16 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Half-way through the second quarter of the year and as the Posidonia week approaches everyone is getting ready for this unique gathering that besid ...
Thursday, 10 May 18
PRIVATE POWER PRODUCERS NEED A 'POWERFUL PUSH' - PRADEEP MITTAL
- PLF of the Private Sector in the country (Coal and Lignite based) for FY 2017-18 (till Dec 2017) is 56%.
- 51 GW of stressed assets (Thermal &a ...
Tuesday, 08 May 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$1 BILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT INDONESIA PRATAMA
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, has entered into mining services contracts with PT Indones ...
Monday, 07 May 18
BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DROPPED BACK BELOW $90 A TON THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1812 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 3 May 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 5.5 ...
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Showing 1721 to 1725 news of total 6871 |
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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