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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Tuesday, 26 June 18
A SHARP RISE IN THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL WAS TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY, ITS BIGGEST DAILY GAIN IN TWO YEARS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
A sharp rise in the price of crude oil was to be seen on Friday, its biggest daily gain in two years, as OPEC reached a deal to raise output. Despi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.179 MT OF COAL IN MAY; DOWN 14.77% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,453.6 Mi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
COAL IN THE CROSSFIRE: CHINESE TRADERS WARY OF BEING BURNT BY TRADE WAR - REUTERS
At least three U.S. coal shipments on their way to China may end up casualties of the escalating trade dispute after Beijing said it would impose s ...
Saturday, 23 June 18
COAL GROUP TARGETS 9 PER CENT REVENUE SPIKE - VIET NAM NEWS
Viet Nam News reported, the Viet Nam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin or TKV) is targeting VNĐ116.9 trillion (US$5.1 billion) ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
ROBUST ASIAN THERMAL COAL DEMAND CREATES OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Minerals Council of Australia reported, Australia’s world-class coal mining industry can create more jobs in Australia and strengthen t ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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