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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 12 April 19
U.S : MORE THAN 7 GW OF COAL-FIRED GENERATION IS SCHEDULED TO RETIRE BY THE END OF 2020 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production decreased by 19 million short tons (MMst) (2%) in 2018, totaling 756 MMst.
EIA also expects ...
Friday, 12 April 19
GLENCORE WINS $520 MILLION DEAL TO SELL COAL TO MEXICO - REUTERS
Global trader Glencore has won contracts worth around $520 million to supply 4.94 million tonnes of coal to Mexico, state-run power utility the Fed ...
Thursday, 11 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL IN THE FRONTLINE OF CHINA'S SUPPLY GLUT - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Australian coal will be hardest hit as China cuts foreign imports of its key energy source to tackle oversupply, and implements policies favouring ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
COALTRANS ASIA - TAKE PART IN THE LARGEST COAL EVENT IN THE WORLD!
Take part in the largest coal event in the world!
Coaltrans Asia is back this June bringing together the entire international coal s ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
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Showing 1421 to 1425 news of total 6871 |
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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