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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 12 April 19
U.S : MORE THAN 7 GW OF COAL-FIRED GENERATION IS SCHEDULED TO RETIRE BY THE END OF 2020 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production decreased by 19 million short tons (MMst) (2%) in 2018, totaling 756 MMst.
EIA also expects ...
Friday, 12 April 19
GLENCORE WINS $520 MILLION DEAL TO SELL COAL TO MEXICO - REUTERS
Global trader Glencore has won contracts worth around $520 million to supply 4.94 million tonnes of coal to Mexico, state-run power utility the Fed ...
Thursday, 11 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL IN THE FRONTLINE OF CHINA'S SUPPLY GLUT - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Australian coal will be hardest hit as China cuts foreign imports of its key energy source to tackle oversupply, and implements policies favouring ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
COALTRANS ASIA - TAKE PART IN THE LARGEST COAL EVENT IN THE WORLD!
Take part in the largest coal event in the world!
Coaltrans Asia is back this June bringing together the entire international coal s ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
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Showing 1421 to 1425 news of total 6871 |
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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