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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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