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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
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Showing 1426 to 1430 news of total 6871 |
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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