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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
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Showing 1426 to 1430 news of total 6871 |
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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