We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 17 April 19
LNG WESTERN AFRICA CONFERENCE 2019
The only LNG Focus Platform to Accelerate Investment and Cooperation in Western African Countries
LNG Western Africa Conference 2019 ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
IMO 2020 - DON'T SCRUB IT! - IVAR MYKLEBUST
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Höegh Autoliners stands firm on its decision not to implement scrubbers but comply with the IMO 2020 regulations by ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA IRON ORE CARGOES LIFTING FROM $4.60 PMT TO ABOVE $5.00 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market saw a steep ascent from the depths of last week. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC opened on Monday at $5,099, although b ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effecti ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OFFSHORE MENA CONGRESS 2019
Offshore MENA Congress 2019
Event Date : 11-12th Jun. 2019
Location : Cairo, Egypt
Offshore MENA Congress 2019 Offshor ...
|
|
|
Showing 1416 to 1420 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
