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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
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Showing 1411 to 1415 news of total 6871 |
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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