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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
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Showing 1411 to 1415 news of total 6871 |
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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