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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
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Showing 1411 to 1415 news of total 6871 |
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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