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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
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Showing 1411 to 1415 news of total 6871 |
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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