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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
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Showing 1441 to 1445 news of total 6871 |
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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