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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
...
Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
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Showing 1446 to 1450 news of total 6871 |
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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