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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
...
Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
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Showing 1446 to 1450 news of total 6871 |
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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