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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 12 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This year’s tanker S&P activity keeps edging higher compared to the same period in 2018. Year to date we have seen some 143 ships, rangin ...
Tuesday, 11 June 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SET AT $81.48 PER TON IN JUNE, DOWN 15.66 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 10 June 19
CONSECUTIVE OWNERS OF CARGO: WHO HOLDS TITLE AND THE RIGHT TO SUE? - COLIN BIGGERS & PAISLEY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In Tritton Resources Pty Ltd v Ever Rock Navigation S.A. [2019] FCA 276, the Federal Court considered the application of ...
Monday, 10 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,305,000 MT OF MIN 5600 KCAL/KG NCV COAL FOR SEPT 2019 TO DEC 2021
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 435,000 MT (per year) of max 5,600 kcal/kg N ...
Sunday, 09 June 19
SUPRAMAX: ASIA LOST GROUND; THE INDIAN OCEAN SAW SLOWER ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued in an unusually steady ascent last week. With no major news in the market, each day improved on the last, breakin ...
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Showing 1386 to 1390 news of total 6871 |
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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