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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 12 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This year’s tanker S&P activity keeps edging higher compared to the same period in 2018. Year to date we have seen some 143 ships, rangin ...
Tuesday, 11 June 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SET AT $81.48 PER TON IN JUNE, DOWN 15.66 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 10 June 19
CONSECUTIVE OWNERS OF CARGO: WHO HOLDS TITLE AND THE RIGHT TO SUE? - COLIN BIGGERS & PAISLEY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In Tritton Resources Pty Ltd v Ever Rock Navigation S.A. [2019] FCA 276, the Federal Court considered the application of ...
Monday, 10 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,305,000 MT OF MIN 5600 KCAL/KG NCV COAL FOR SEPT 2019 TO DEC 2021
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 435,000 MT (per year) of max 5,600 kcal/kg N ...
Sunday, 09 June 19
SUPRAMAX: ASIA LOST GROUND; THE INDIAN OCEAN SAW SLOWER ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued in an unusually steady ascent last week. With no major news in the market, each day improved on the last, breakin ...
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Showing 1386 to 1390 news of total 6871 |
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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