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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 07 June 19
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR 1.87 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JULY - OCTOBER 2019 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,700,000 to 1,870,000 Metric Tons ...
Wednesday, 05 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first semester of 2019 started as a fairly positive semester for the offshore sector whilst there was a recovery on crude prices, as well as a ...
Tuesday, 04 June 19
MARPOL ANNEX VI - SULPHUR CAP 2020 - DEMYSTIFYING THE FONAR - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Fuel Oil Non-Availability Report (FONAR) is primarily a discretionary tool for a Member State to lessen the breach of MAR ...
Monday, 03 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 TONNER OPEN NORTH CHINA, FIXING A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY SOUTHEAST ASIA AT $7,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued its steady ascent over the past week to improved levels. The TC average opened the previous week at $12,243 and c ...
Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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