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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 07 June 19
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR 1.87 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JULY - OCTOBER 2019 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,700,000 to 1,870,000 Metric Tons ...
Wednesday, 05 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first semester of 2019 started as a fairly positive semester for the offshore sector whilst there was a recovery on crude prices, as well as a ...
Tuesday, 04 June 19
MARPOL ANNEX VI - SULPHUR CAP 2020 - DEMYSTIFYING THE FONAR - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Fuel Oil Non-Availability Report (FONAR) is primarily a discretionary tool for a Member State to lessen the breach of MAR ...
Monday, 03 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 TONNER OPEN NORTH CHINA, FIXING A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY SOUTHEAST ASIA AT $7,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued its steady ascent over the past week to improved levels. The TC average opened the previous week at $12,243 and c ...
Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
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Showing 1391 to 1395 news of total 6871 |
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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