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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 07 June 19
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR 1.87 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JULY - OCTOBER 2019 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,700,000 to 1,870,000 Metric Tons ...
Wednesday, 05 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first semester of 2019 started as a fairly positive semester for the offshore sector whilst there was a recovery on crude prices, as well as a ...
Tuesday, 04 June 19
MARPOL ANNEX VI - SULPHUR CAP 2020 - DEMYSTIFYING THE FONAR - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Fuel Oil Non-Availability Report (FONAR) is primarily a discretionary tool for a Member State to lessen the breach of MAR ...
Monday, 03 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 TONNER OPEN NORTH CHINA, FIXING A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY SOUTHEAST ASIA AT $7,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued its steady ascent over the past week to improved levels. The TC average opened the previous week at $12,243 and c ...
Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
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Showing 1391 to 1395 news of total 6871 |
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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