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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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