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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
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