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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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