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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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