We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
|
|
|
Showing 1371 to 1375 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
|
| |
| |
|
