We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
...
Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the res ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
|
|
|
Showing 1361 to 1365 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
