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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
...
Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the res ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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