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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
...
Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the res ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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