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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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