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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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