We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market i ...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
NORDEN HAS BEEN AWARDED A 3-YEAR CONTRACT FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF COAL FROM INDONESIA TO HONG KONG
NORDEN has been awarded a 3-year contract with a power company in Hong Kong for the transportation of coal from Indonesia to Hong Kong.
...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
THE AUGUST 2019 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS THE FIRST MONTHLY GAIN SINCE AUGUST 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Monday, 19 August 19
INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, A 82,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY CHINA VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY JAPAN, IN THE MID $16,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market was buoyant in both basins this week, posting gains across the board. After bottoming out the previous week, rates ...
|
|
|
Showing 1346 to 1350 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
