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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market i ...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
NORDEN HAS BEEN AWARDED A 3-YEAR CONTRACT FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF COAL FROM INDONESIA TO HONG KONG
NORDEN has been awarded a 3-year contract with a power company in Hong Kong for the transportation of coal from Indonesia to Hong Kong.
...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
THE AUGUST 2019 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS THE FIRST MONTHLY GAIN SINCE AUGUST 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Monday, 19 August 19
INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, A 82,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY CHINA VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY JAPAN, IN THE MID $16,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market was buoyant in both basins this week, posting gains across the board. After bottoming out the previous week, rates ...
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Showing 1346 to 1350 news of total 6871 |
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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