We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market i ...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
NORDEN HAS BEEN AWARDED A 3-YEAR CONTRACT FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF COAL FROM INDONESIA TO HONG KONG
NORDEN has been awarded a 3-year contract with a power company in Hong Kong for the transportation of coal from Indonesia to Hong Kong.
...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
THE AUGUST 2019 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS THE FIRST MONTHLY GAIN SINCE AUGUST 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Monday, 19 August 19
INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, A 82,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY CHINA VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY JAPAN, IN THE MID $16,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market was buoyant in both basins this week, posting gains across the board. After bottoming out the previous week, rates ...
|
|
|
Showing 1346 to 1350 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
