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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market i ...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
NORDEN HAS BEEN AWARDED A 3-YEAR CONTRACT FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF COAL FROM INDONESIA TO HONG KONG
NORDEN has been awarded a 3-year contract with a power company in Hong Kong for the transportation of coal from Indonesia to Hong Kong.
...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
THE AUGUST 2019 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS THE FIRST MONTHLY GAIN SINCE AUGUST 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Monday, 19 August 19
INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, A 82,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY CHINA VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY JAPAN, IN THE MID $16,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market was buoyant in both basins this week, posting gains across the board. After bottoming out the previous week, rates ...
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Showing 1346 to 1350 news of total 6871 |
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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