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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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