We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
|
|
|
Showing 1336 to 1340 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
