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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
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Showing 1326 to 1330 news of total 6871 |
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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