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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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