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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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