We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
|
|
|
Showing 1331 to 1335 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
