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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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