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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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