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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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