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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
Thursday, 17 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country’s ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
INDIA CALLS FOR A RESET OF CLIMATE DEBATE ON COAL AS A FUEL - LIVEMINT
India on Tuesday called for a reset on climate debate on coal as a fuel, in the backdrop of India becoming one of the top renewable energy producer ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
LESSONS LEARNT FROM CREW INJURED IN HEAVY WEATHER - UK P&I CLUB COMMENTS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Stuart Edmonston, Loss Prevention at UK P&I Club, discusses an incident in which crew were injured whilst on deck in ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In perhaps the most interesting market conditions of the past years, the tanker and the dry bulk industry have created a positive sentiment with re ...
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Showing 1311 to 1315 news of total 6871 |
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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