We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
Thursday, 17 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country’s ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
INDIA CALLS FOR A RESET OF CLIMATE DEBATE ON COAL AS A FUEL - LIVEMINT
India on Tuesday called for a reset on climate debate on coal as a fuel, in the backdrop of India becoming one of the top renewable energy producer ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
LESSONS LEARNT FROM CREW INJURED IN HEAVY WEATHER - UK P&I CLUB COMMENTS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Stuart Edmonston, Loss Prevention at UK P&I Club, discusses an incident in which crew were injured whilst on deck in ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In perhaps the most interesting market conditions of the past years, the tanker and the dry bulk industry have created a positive sentiment with re ...
|
|
|
Showing 1311 to 1315 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
